报告题目：A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM CARE INSURANCE DECISIONS

时 间：2010年10月28日星期四 12:00 – 14:00

地 点：明德主楼610

报 告 人：孙伟

主要内容：The cost of nursing home care represents a substantial financial risk for older households. Yet, only 10 percent purchase long-term care insurance (LTCI), with many relying on Medicaid. Using Health and Retirement Study data, I estimate a structural model of the LTCI purchase decision. I conclude that this population has a modest preference for higher quality care and that Medicaid crowds out LTCI. Housing wealth provides self-insurance against the cost of nursing home care, so that individuals who are “house-rich cash-poor” are less likely to purchase LTCI. I also evaluate public policies designed to stimulate the take-up of LTCI. I find that a comprehensive 20 percent subsidy would increase take-up by 160 percent, but the resulting Medicaid savings would amount to only 22 percent of the subsidy cost. A targeted subsidy would be more likely to break even, but would have only a small effect on coverage. Full enforcement of Medicaid estate recovery programs would reduce Medicaid expenditure by 31 percent, but would have insignificant effect on LTCI coverage.

Keywords: Long-term care insurance, Medicaid, Nursing home care quality preference, Policy experiments

报告人简介：孙伟博士，中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院助理教授 。美国Boston College经济学博士、美国Bowling Green State University经济学硕士、对外经济贸易大学金融学学士。科研方向主要着重公共经济学,金融经济学。

中国人民大学财政金融学院

2010-10-22